Saturday, February 2, 2013

Mars reference mission (one way colonization)

I've got posts throughout this blog with numbers which I am now going to collect here (and revise as needed) as a reference mission for sending 48 colonists one way to mars. This presumes a precursor mission (not included here) of about a dozen to show they can live on mars and make preparation for new arrivals. Update: Why 48? Because we're not going for science. We're going to develop a whole new world which is worth more than the piddling amounts being thrown about. Yes, 10 billion is a piddling amount for an entire world. Our lack of vision may come back to haunt us. Why 48? Because that is about the minimum to get industry started. You need more for genetic diversity, but that is taken care of with seeds (the perfect space travelers.) We just need to get the eggs and incubators there first.** While I applaud the Mars One plan they could send 12 times as many for the same money.

Conclusion: $4.8 billion mission cost, $100 million per colonist.
Note: 42% of mission is getting fuel to orbit.
See timeline below where mission cost goes from billions to zero!

Assumptions:
  • 25 Falcon Heavy, 50 mt to orbit for $100 m. each.
    • EML1 cost requires further analysis.
    • 2 FH launches to orbit G.P.S.
    • 20 FH launches to fuel two G.P.S. (This also happens to create a huge market for lunar oxygen lowering mission cost.)
    • 3 FH launches for crew via stretch dragons (to ships waiting at EML1?)
  • Each colonists requires 2.5 mt. (Themselves, space suit and provisions.)
    • 1.5 mt. of consumables for voyage from earth to mars orbit (includes packaging.)
    • 1 mt. to mars surface (per terms of settlement charter.)
  • 3 Stretch Dragon, to orbit $128 m. each (possibly lower with reuse.)
    • Non essential, existing Dragons simply cost a bit more.
    • 16 passengers to orbit (40 mt. payload, 2.5 mt per passenger.)
      • First will deliver 8 crew to each ship.
      • 2nd and 3rd will deliver all 16 to each separate ship.
    • Cost per passenger: $8 m. (1st step to mars.)
  • 2 General Purpose Ship (G.P.S.) 40 mt to orbit $300 m. each
    • Let's call these Merlin BA700 class ships.
      • 1/3 the size and mass of a BA2100 (to fit on FH.)
      • Bigelow has demonstrated that size is adjustable.
      • Designed for best use of FH payload capability.
    • Gas and go. Does not land anywhere ever. Just for going from orbit to orbit.
    • Life support for 24 (Supplemented by passenger consumables.)
    • 700 m3 interior space (12 m3: 2x2x3, per private cabin space, 412 m3 of common space separated into multiple rooms.)
    • Uses Merlin Vacuum from upper stage of FH, includes ion drive for empty return to earth. Fuel storage (kerosene, lox) is a technical detail left to really smart readers. (hint: structure is included in 40 mt. but requires some orbital assembly.)
    • Solar panels provide power and shielding for fuel.
    • Departure dry mass 100 mt. (24 passengers * 2.5 mt. each = 60 mt. plus ship mass.)
    • Cost per passenger (before fuel): $12.5 m. (2nd step to mars.)
  • 12 Dragon 2 Lander, to mars orbit for $150 m. each.
    •  4 mt. payload from mars orbit to surface (four colonist w/ provisions.)
    • Cost per passenger: $37.5 m. (3rd step to mars.)
    • We may send more for redundancy in orbit and to preposition supplies on the surface of mars which is not included in these assumptions but easily added at $150 m. per.
Update: I've heard the Red Dragon would land from 1 mt to 10 mt on mars, so 4 mt seemed reasonable. However, the Mars One Dragon would deliver only 2.5 mt. So assuming that mass instead of 4 mt, we could still land 4 colonists per lander, but they would only take a bit more than half their provisions with them with the rest being delivered on a separate lander. This would require ten more landers for $1.5b. which could go first and be waiting for them on arrival. /update.

So that gives us $58 m. per colonist before considering departure fuel. How much fuel does the G.P.S. require? What delta V will be required makes a huge difference. For now let's say 1000 mt. of fuel (500 mt. per G.P.S. for two ships) which would be 20 FH launches for $2b which is $42 b. per colonist giving us a total cost of $100 m. per colonist to the surface of mars with space suit and provisions. So the total cost of this reference mission is $4.8 billion. A precursor mission might be done by others and may cost more but should cost less considering they could send just one BA330 class ship with 6 crew using the above assumptions.

The settlement charter provides (per colonist) 1000 sq. km. to cover that $100 m. for a break even of $200 per undeveloped half acre plot. Colonists should make about $2000 profit (probably more) on developed half acre plots. As colonists develop plots, the undeveloped plots near those should go up in value. More colonists arriving constitutes a boom town.

Update: Instead of sending 12 landers ahead to mars orbit they may ride with the ship in a structure that also holds fuel. The cost should be about the same either way. Or they could do a combination for higher cost having 12 landers waiting in mars orbit and four landers going with each ship in which case six crew would land with fewer provisions on each Dragon. Prepositioned (abundant) supplies on the surface are highly recommended.

TIMELINE

How long will it take? That depends on funds and launches available each year. Let's say we have $300 m. per year. Assuming 5% return, $6 b. (the Mars One target) would do it without ever having to touch the principle. If we have income beyond $300 m. per year, we can just work to accumulate the $6 b. without having to come up with it up front. Now I will show how the mission can cost nothing (not billions, but zero) and even make a profit. I said it could, not that it would, but we can certainly mitigate the cost.

Year Zero: We launch 1 G.P.Ship to LEO. This becomes a tourist destination that can provide a profitable source of income. Tourists may come and go in overlapping flights of seven on F9/Dragon. Assuming $5 m. in profit for each tourist, 60 tourists per year (never more than 24 at a time) completely funds this colony project. Every tourist drops our mission cost from billions toward zero and could even turn a profit. At this point we've only spent just $300 m. Once on board, tourists can extend their time for a minimal cost (compared to $20m) for weeks or even months. This will be coordinated so that all returning Dragons are full. Update: Do I believe 60 tourists a year would pay $20m for several weeks in orbit. No, since there have only been about 20 ever (and one or two would be non paying crew.) However, it is a cost mitigation. It also suggests that some, wanting to move to the head of the line would be willing to buy land from the transportation company on migration.

Only Elon know's how much money he's making at $20 m. per person. With high flight rates he can probably be negotiated to $15m per seat. We begin adding structure for fuel tankage and four additional docks for Dragon2 to the ship. We are going to mars.

Update: Bigelow seems to disagree with me; offering 60 day stays for $26.25m.

He's targeting nations rather than individual tourists: “Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Sweden could secure the future of their human spaceflight programs and dramatically increase the size of their astronaut corps,” the company’s website states. “Smaller countries with no human spaceflight experience such as Singapore or the United Arab Emirates could take their first bold steps into space in a rapid and affordable fashion.

The Alpha station will have 6 x 110 m3 sections that will rent for $51.25m each for up to 6 times a year meaning a potential $1.845b annually. Only 16% of that is required to fully fund this reference mission giving us not a hotel in orbit but an entire new planet (with resources in walking distance but they'll use trucks.) The BA330 has life support for six providing 55 m3 per person. Alpha station will have two BA330s.

Year One: We launch 2 Dragon2 for mars orbit. The main purpose being to show that we can safely land these on mars. The first will land on the equator. The second will attempt to land about 10 km. from the first. This will put the first 8 mt. of provisions on the martian surface waiting for colonists. Update: 5 mt with the new Mars One assumptions.

Year Two: The second G.P.S. and tourist destination goes to LEO. We will only work on structure and tankage after the first one is complete. Both ships should have several shakedown cruises around the moon over the next few years (starting around year four.) Tourists or others would pay a bit more for this ride of course (because of fuel costs.)

Year Three: 2 more Dragon2 with supplies to land to start forming a circle within 10 km. of the central Dragon2 on equator. This gives us experience and knowledge of precision Dragon2 landings before we take passengers. It also provides emergency backup supplies and shelter to others that may put people within range.

Year Four: Tankage is complete on first ship. 3 FH fuel launches this year. We create a market in LEO for kerosene and lox by offering $2 million per metric ton to any other providers.

Year Five: First 2 Dragon2 landers sent to mars orbit waiting for the arrival of colonists to land.

Aprox. Year Ten: We have six landers in mars orbit and a fully fueled G.P.S. waiting to go. We have four to seven supply Dragons waiting on the surface of mars. We could send the first 24 colonists now, or wait for the second ship to be ready to go along.

In any case, we are a two planet species within 20 years.

Note: The stretch Dragon is the only thing not on the drawing boards (only Elon knows) and is not essential. This mission easily flies without them using the current Dragon (presumed upgraded for crew.) OK, neither is a BA700, but that's a logical and trivial change coming between the existing designs of the BA330 and BA2100. The BA330 is part of Bigelow's cislunar concept while the BA2100 isn't. The BA700 is specifically for sending 24 passengers BEO.

Did I say the transportation company has to make $200 per undeveloped half acre to break even? As the mission cost goes to zero, so does the break even cost. In which case, every plot sold at any price is pure profit. Now that's a case for mars! (to borrow a phrase.)

Also, developed plots are a separate market so this doesn't hurt the colonists income potential either. Each colonist will have a land claim worth more than a million dollars over their lifetime from almost the moment they arrive (boot print and witness required per terms of settlement charter.) They will be free people (unless they choose enslave themselves with ill advised public entanglements not required on a young world.) The sale of a single developed property provides funds to develop the next with improvements that come from experience.

Update: Just for comparison, Zubrin's 2 person direct mission would cost about $3.6b for 48 (going in pairs w/o ERV) and would be scalable up or down. I'd rather have a couple of dozen people to socialize with and my own private personal space for privacy when I want for a trip of over 6 months (plus I provide 1.5 mt of supplies for the voyage per person and another mt. when they land vs. his 2.5 mt for two people for three years.)

**Yes, mars will need moms (again, not slaves, unless they are foolish enough to make themselves such.)

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